Radar intelligence

Signals that sit behind the oil price and the Iran story, each with the date it is as of. They describe where things stand; none is a forecast.

Expected oil volatility

62.7 OVX

Trading day Nov 2, 2026 · Higher than 95% of days since 2009

Options on US crude are priced for a month’s swing of about 18% either way. The higher the figure, the more the market expects prices to move.

Source: Cboe Global Markets, OVX index, closing level

Military fuel bought in the Middle East

5.7% of its fuel contracts

Jun 2026 · $45m of $784m · the twelve months before: 5.9%

The share of what the Defense Logistics Agency, which buys the military’s fuel, contracted for delivery in the Gulf states, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Djibouti. Contract records come out about three months late, so this is buying to Jun 2026, not now.

Recent months

Fuel contract dollars by month: the Middle East, all places, and the Middle East’s share
Month	Middle East	All places	Share
Jun 2026	$45m	$784m	5.7%
May 2026	$103m	$1.5bn	6.8%
Apr 2026	$66m	$1.5bn	4.4%
Mar 2026	$85m	$1.7bn	5.0%
Feb 2026	$98m	$907m	10.8%
Jan 2026	$30m	$566m	5.3%
Dec 2025	$12m	$613m	2.0%
Nov 2025	$48m	$640m	7.5%

Source: USAspending.gov, Defense Logistics Agency fuel contract actions

Where traders put the odds

Read 18 min ago

18%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77m traded · Closes Jan 1, 2027
11%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$16m traded · Closes Jan 1, 2027
13%US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$4m traded · Closes Jan 1, 2027
8%Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?$3m traded · Closes Jan 1, 2027
9% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$2m traded · Closes Jan 1, 2027
36%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$2m traded · Closes Dec 31, 2026
6%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?$1m traded · Closes Dec 1, 2026
49%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?$802k traded · Closes Nov 30, 2026
36%US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?$437k traded · Closes Jan 1, 2027
14%Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$370k traded · Closes Jan 1, 2027

What people have staked on yes-or-no questions about Iran and the strait, as a chance in percent. A thinly traded question can move on a single bet.

Source: Polymarket